The Northern Nevada Housing Market: Reality vs. Rumors

If you've been sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the Reno housing market to crash, hoping for 2012-level home prices to return, I hate to be the bearer of reality, but you're going to be waiting for a long time. There’s been a lot of buzz, tons of headlines, and plenty of YouTube thumbnails with the words “crash, ” “collapse, ” or “meltdown.” But here on the ground in Reno, Nevada, that's simply not what’s happening. And I’ve been doing this for over 25 years, so I’ve seen the truths, the myths, and the cycles. Spoiler alert: we’re in for much more of a slow, steady normalization than any sort of dramatic tumble.

What Actually Happened in 2025?

2025 was unpredictable, to say the least. The market didn’t crash, but it also didn’t skyrocket. It felt like a standoff between buyers and sellers. Buyers, especially first-timers, faced real affordability challenges. Sellers hesitated, many are still emotionally anchored to the dizzying prices of 2021. What we got was a stalemate where prices just kind of... hovered.

If you're wondering what this all looks like on the ground, think back to 2019. Inventory levels are now similar to the pre-COVID market. Yes, the days of homes being snapped up overnight with no contingencies are behind us. But so is the chaos. Today, even though pricing is fairly flat, one out of every seven listings is withdrawn. Sellers often overprice based on unrealistic expectations, and buyers are backing out of contracts more often than ever before. Cancellations before closing are at the highest level I’ve seen in my 25 years working in real estate here.

What Buyers and Sellers Are Actually Doing

We’ve entered into an era where motivations are driven by needs, not market timing. Sellers are mainly older: the average home seller is 64 years old, and nearly half of them are buying new construction. Downsizing is common, with 66 percent moving into smaller homes. We’re also seeing multigenerational living on the rise, driven by affordability issues and lifestyle preferences.

On the buyer side, the average age of a first-time buyer has now climbed to 40. That’s a big deal. Add to that the stat that 25 percent of buyers are single women, while only 10 percent are single men. And the top reason people are moving? To be closer to friends and family. Life events still guide real estate, not the latest hot take on TikTok or Wall Street forecasts.

Affordability: The Ongoing Struggle

Let’s be honest. The No. 1 issue in Reno, Sparks, and across much of Northern Nevada is affordability. Interest rates are floating in the low- to mid-sixes, and while that’s down from the 8 percent we saw shortly after COVID, it’s still a tough pill to swallow. Combine these rates with prices that haven’t significantly dropped, and you’ve got a squeeze that’s hitting younger buyers the hardest.

We're seeing fewer young buyers able to jump into the market without some help, whether through co-signers, shared equity programs, or even extended family pooling resources. I’ve had buyers in their early twenties on my team, including my own daughter who's 24 and eager to buy. It’s challenging, but we’ve helped many young families make it happen with creative planning and realistic expectations. Your first home doesn’t have to be your forever home.

Why Waiting for a Crash Isn't a Strategy

To put it bluntly, as someone with a front-row seat to the Reno housing market, it’s highly unlikely we’re going to see dramatic price drops anytime soon. Unlike the lead-up to 2008, we have:

• Too little new construction, especially in affordable segments
• A solid influx of people relocating here from California and other states
• Historic levels of equity, many homeowners are simply not under financial duress

Over the last 15 years, not enough building took place to keep up with demand. If we want affordability to improve, we need more inventory. But building in Northern Nevada isn’t easy. There are zoning hurdles, infrastructure limitations, and rising material costs. Until policies shift in a way that fosters new development, especially "Yes in my backyard" zoning reform, we're going to continue to see compressed housing supply.

Predictions for 2026: The New Normal

I’ve been diving deep into trends, reports, and industry forecasts. Between Brian Buffini’s bold predictions and Redfin’s Housing Reset report, combined with my own data tracking and local experience, I’m confident in this: 2026 is looking like the start of a meaningful but slow path back to balance. Not fireworks. Not fear. Just a steady return to a healthier marketplace.

So what are we expecting?

• Mortgage rates bouncing between 6 and 6.5 percent, possibly dipping into the high 5s for some VA and FHA buyers
• Home prices inching up modestly, in the 3 to 5 percent range
• Home sales volume increasing by close to 14 percent year-over-year
• Rent prices continuing to rise at inflationary levels

It won’t be enough to dramatically solve our affordability issue, but we’re likely at the bottom of the current sales slump. More homes will start to trade hands again, more inventory will come on the market and slowly, more buyers will adapt to this "new normal."

The Real Deal on Homeownership vs. Renting

I’ve heard it all, "Rent and invest the difference, " they say. But here’s the thing: most renters aren’t actually investing the difference between their rent and what a mortgage payment would cost. Not because they don’t want to, but because they can’t afford to. It’s one of those financial theories that sounds good on paper, but in practice, just doesn’t hold up for most families.

The average homeowner in the U.S. is 46 times wealthier than the average renter. Why? Because home ownership, for many people, is their primary wealth-building tool. Even if you start out with one of those 50-year mortgage experiments, which, by the way, I think only make sense in very specific short-term situations, you’re still planting the seed. Every payment (even if it’s small) chips away at the loan and builds equity.

If you rent, that rent just keeps climbing. It's never going to get cheaper. If you own, someday you’ll have a paid-off asset, or one that’s appreciated dramatically even if it appreciates slowly.

One Real Story: My Buyer with a VA Loan

Just recently, I helped a local veteran buy a home using a VA loan. They were approved at an interest rate in the high 5s, which they were thrilled about. We found them a single-story home in the Spanish Springs area with a perfect-sized backyard for the dog. That buyer had waited several years, unsure when the “right time” would be. But the truth is, they didn’t time it, they just got ready. And now, with a manageable payment and stable equity, they’re homeowners. They no longer have to stress about rent increases or landlords selling out from under them.

What You Should Do If You're Considering a Move

Whether you're looking in South Reno, Northwest Reno, Sparks, or even Fernley, we work with families and individuals moving into the region every day. If you're considering a move here from California or just around the corner, the Reno market still holds plenty of opportunity, but you need to be informed and ready to act logically, not emotionally.

We’ve got resources to help you navigate your individual circumstances, whether you’re upsizing, downsizing, or buying your very first home. Check out the channel for more local insights, or reach out to us if you’d like to talk through your goals.

Final Thoughts: Stability is the New Opportunity

So here’s the deal. The Reno and Northern Nevada housing market isn’t crashing anytime soon. It’s stabilizing. And in real estate speak, that’s a good thing. It means we’re moving toward predictability, away from chaos, and into a healthier environment where buyers and sellers both have roles to play again.

If you're someone who’s decided it’s time, or at least time to start asking the right questions, let this be your nudge. Don’t wait for perfect. There is no perfect time. There’s only the time that makes the most sense for you and your life.

And if you're looking for more tips, insights, and real human advice about life in Reno and how to make smart real estate moves, explore other posts on our blog. You’ll find everything from neighborhood spotlights to moving guides to affordability breakdowns tailored just for Northern Nevada.